The Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Professor Femi Otubanjo, has warned that the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State and the strategic realignment of opposition heavyweights could significantly disrupt the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Speaking on an Arise News program, the political strategist and scholar offered a sweeping assessment of the emerging alliances, party dynamics, and the shifting balance of power shaping the next presidential race.

The Rivers State Crisis: A Strategic Misstep for the Incumbency?

A central theme of Professor Otubanjo’s analysis was the treatment of Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara. He argued that the political maneuvers orchestrated by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike—who technically remains outside the APC but wields significant influence over its local structures—could backfire on President Bola Tinubu.

According to Otubanjo, sidelining Fubara risks alienating the highly influential Ijaw ethnic nationality, not only within Rivers State but across the wider South-South region.

"The Ijaw are in the majority in Rivers State," Otubanjo stated. "By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the eight to 14 million Ijaw across the South-South. It is a dangerous game to play."

While noting that Fubara’s predicament was partly due to his initial compliance with a godfather-vassal political arrangement, Otubanjo emphasized that the electoral consequences would ultimately be borne by the president. He cautioned that while the APC enjoyed sweeping gains across the South-South following the 2023 elections, the marginalization of an Ijaw governor could erode that hard-earned advantage. He added that if Fubara defects to an opposition platform like the National Democratic Congress (NDC), he remains vulnerable to impeachment by the Wike-aligned legislative majority, further destabilizing the state's political ecosystem.

The 'Premier League' of Nigerian Politics

Evaluating the national landscape, Otubanjo categorized the current contenders using a football league hierarchy, asserting that only two politicians currently occupy the "Premier League" of Nigerian politics: President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Commenting on Atiku Abubakar’s recent emergence as the presidential candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Otubanjo revealed that the platform was effectively designed as a special purpose vehicle for Atiku's ambitions. He dismissed the challenge posed by former Rivers Governor Chibuike Amaechi within that primary, noting that Amaechi—whom he characterized as a highly successful technocratic administrator rather than a grassroots structural politician—lacked the leverage to match Atiku's tally of over 1.8 million votes.

2027 Outlook: Why the Odds Favor Tinubu, For Now

Despite the emerging fault lines, Professor Otubanjo concluded that the current political calculus heavily favors President Tinubu's re-election prospects, citing his execution of "creative, positive incumbency."

Unlike the 2023 cycle, where Tinubu faced internal party skepticism and secured second-place finishes in key northern states like Kaduna, Katsina, and Kano, the political landscape has shifted significantly. Today, Tinubu commands the loyalty of 31 state governors, including strategic alignments with opposition figures like Anambra State Governor Chukwuma Soludo and Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke.

Otubanjo projected a strong performance for the president in the North-Central zone and predicted a highly competitive race in the North-East, bolstered by the influence of Vice President Kashim Shettima and recent APC gains in states like Taraba.

However, the scholar concluded with a classic political caveat: "The odds favor Tinubu. But as Harold Wilson famously noted, a week is a long time in politics. Anything can change.