The All Progressives Congress (APC) is set to conduct its critical governorship primary elections across the country on Thursday, amid mounting political tension and widespread resistance to attempts by party leadership to impose consensus candidates ahead of the 2027 general elections.

While party leaders and influential stakeholders have heavily pushed for consensus arrangements to prevent internal divisions and acrimonious contests, numerous aspirants have fiercely resisted the move, demanding instead to test their popularity at the polls.

The APC national leadership has indicated that direct primaries will be deployed in states where consensus efforts have collapsed. Investigations reveal that active resistance to these backroom deals has intensified in at least 10 states, including Kwara, Lagos, Plateau, Gombe, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Oyo.

High Stakes and Sudden Exit in Rivers State

The political landscape in Rivers State was upended late Wednesday when Governor Siminalayi Fubara announced his sudden withdrawal from the APC gubernatorial primary election. Fubara cited the need to preserve peace, unity, and stability in the oil-rich state following months of an intractable, three-year political feud with his predecessor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike.

In an official statement titled “My Decision to Withdraw from the Rivers State Gubernatorial Primaries,” Fubara described his exit as a calculated sacrifice rather than a capitulation.

“After deep reflection and extensive consultations... I have taken the difficult but necessary decision to withdraw from the APC gubernatorial primaries,” Fubara stated. “Let it be clearly understood that I stepped aside… not out of weakness, fear, or surrender, but out of conviction and sacrifice so that Rivers State may move forward in peace and unity.”

Fubara’s withdrawal follows a tumultuous period, including a brief walkout from a tense screening committee session in Abuja, a six-month suspension during a federally declared state of emergency in 2025, and a third structural impeachment attempt launched against him in January by Wike-aligned lawmakers.

The governor’s exit effectively clears the path for Wike’s loyalist and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Kingsley Chinda, who stands as the sole remaining major contestant. This follows the concurrent withdrawal of businessman Tonye Cole and former Works Commissioner Dakorinama George-Kelly, both of whom stepped down on Wednesday evening in deference to party supremacy and unity.

Fubara’s political capital within the state APC had already taken a severe blow earlier in the week when the party disqualified all 32 state House of Assembly aspirants backed by his camp—including three loyalist lawmakers aligned with factional Speaker Victor Oko-Jumbo. Additionally, key federal allies, including House of Representatives members Hon. Awaji-Inombek Abiante and Hon. Boma Goodhead, alongside Senator Ipalibo Banigo-Harry, were disqualified from securing return tickets. Despite rumors of a impending defection to a "Plan B" platform, Fubara recently maintained that he remains a loyal member of the APC.

Consensus Fractures in Kwara and Lagos

In Kwara State, consensus mechanisms suffered a major setback as 13 aspirants prepared to challenge Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s preferred successor, Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki.

Governor AbdulRazaq publicly endorsed Seriki on Tuesday, describing him as a "young, pro-people, and astute" leader capable of sustaining the administration's legacy. While the governor noted that his endorsement does not preclude others from contesting, the remaining field of over a dozen aspirants has rejected pressures to step down.

A similar gridlock has gripped Lagos State, where political negotiations intensified as several frontline aspirants refused to yield, setting up a direct confrontation with camps aligned behind Deputy Governor Kadri Hamzat.

Power Blocs Clash in Adamawa and Plateau

Adamawa State has become a primary battleground for proxy warfare between forces aligned with Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and those backing National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu.

The primary race, which initially featured 10 contenders, has seen intense realignment. The Fintiri faction is reportedly backing Mustapha Salihu, while the Ribadu support group—led by chieftains like Uba Danarewa—is firmly behind Tijjani Galadima, vowing to resist any external candidate imposition.

In a strategic consolidation on Tuesday following a closed-door stakeholder meeting at Government House, Yola:

• Diaulhaq Abubakar withdrew from the race to endorse Tijjani Galadima.

• Joel Madaki stepped down to back Abdulrahman Haske, citing the need for generational transition.

• Aminu Iya Abbas withdrew earlier to pivot to a senatorial bid.

Meanwhile, Governor Fintiri’s plans to publicly unveil his chosen successor were abruptly shelved following intense pressure and threats of political repercussions from stakeholders in Abuja.

In Plateau State, retired military officer Yilcini Bida dismissed widespread rumors that he had stepped down for the incumbent governor, Caleb Mutfwang. Bida reaffirmed his candidacy on Tuesday, stating he is fully prepared to challenge the governor on Thursday on a platform of infrastructure renewal and security reform, amid reports that his campaign has gained substantial momentum from federal backers in Abuja.

A Snapshot of Other State Contests

As the party heads into Thursday's vote, several other states boast crowded and highly competitive fields: