The landscape of Nigeria’s 11th House of Representatives is poised for a significant shake-up ahead of the 2027 general elections. Reports indicate that no fewer than 50 incumbent members of the 10th House will not return to the Green Chamber.

As of press time, at least 48 lawmakers under the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have lost their return tickets in the nationwide legislative primaries held over the weekend. Meanwhile, two legislators from Bayelsa State voluntarily opted out of the race to pursue higher political offices.

The casualty rate is expected to rise as the APC finalizes its official results, and major opposition parties—including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)—are yet to conduct their primaries.

Despite the sweeping defeats, House Speaker Tajudeen Abbas (Kano) and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu (Abia) successfully secured their return tickets to lead the APC's legislative charge.

High-Profile Casualties and Major Upsets

The primaries delivered shocking defeats to several high-profile and long-serving lawmakers across the country:

• Prof. Julius Ihonvbere (Edo State): The House Majority Leader failed to secure the APC ticket for the Owan Federal Constituency. Ihonvbere finished a distant third with 1,005 votes out of 7,587 cast, losing to Andrew Ijegbia, who secured the ticket with 3,695 votes.

• Nicholas Mutu (Delta State): The veteran lawmaker representing Bomadi/Patani Federal Constituency, who has been in the House since the return of democracy in 1999, lost his bid.

• Yusuf Adamu Gagdi (Plateau State): The two-term member representing Pankshin/Kanke/Kanam Federal Constituency lost his third-term bid to Dr. John Tongshinen, who polled 29,968 votes against Gagdi’s fewer than 6,000 votes.

• Mike Etaba (Cross River State): The three-term lawmaker representing Obubra/Etung missed out on a fourth-term ticket.

Regional Breakdown of Results

South-South: Mass Casualties in Cross River, Alignments in Bayelsa

The South-South geopolitical zone witnessed a major sweep of incumbents, particularly in Cross River State, where five out of eight serving representatives lost their tickets.

Among those denied return tickets in Cross River were:

• Mike Etaba (Obubra/Etung)

• Alex Egbona (Abi/Yakurr), who defected to the PDP ahead of the deadline

• Godwin Offiono (Ogoja/Yala)

• Emil Inyang (Akamkpa/Biase)

• Bassey Akiba (Odukpani/Calabar Municipality)

Conversely, only three incumbents—Peter Akpanke, Joseph Bassey, and Victor Abang—secured their return tickets.

In Bayelsa State, political shifts dictated the outcomes. Oforji Oboku (Yenagoa/Kolokuma-Opukuma) and Engr. Rodney Ambaiowei (Southern Ijaw) retained their party tickets. However, new entrants emerged in other constituencies as high-ranking incumbents chose to remain with the PDP to pursue senatorial ambitions. Notably, Rep. Fred Agbedi is eyeign the Bayelsa West Senate seat, and Rep. Marie Ebikake is contesting the Bayelsa East Senatorial District.

In Delta State, Ngozi Lawrence Okolie lost the Aniocha/Oshimili Federal Constituency ticket to former House Minority Leader Ndudi Elumelu.

Unconfirmed reports from Akwa Ibom State indicate a high retention rate for incumbents, with Okpolupum Etteh (Eket/Esit Eket/Ibeno) reportedly being the only notable casualty.

Southwest: Incumbents Fall in Ekiti and Ogun

The Southwest primaries also recorded a high turnover rate. In Ekiti State, three incumbents crashed out:

• In Ekiti Central II, Oladapo Karounwi (6,573 votes) defeated the incumbent, Abiodun Omoleye (2,096 votes).

• In Ekiti South I, Okoro Toyin Zaccheaus (9,798 votes) unseated Rufus Adeni Ojuawo (1,842 votes).

• In Ekiti North II, Ibrahim Olanrewaju (6,856 votes) outpolled the incumbent (2,102 votes).

In Ogun State, five of the nine sitting lawmakers failed to secure return tickets. The casualties include Deputy Chief Whip Ibrahim Isiaka (Ifo/Ewekoro), Ishaq Akinlade (Yewa North/Ipokia), Tunji Akinosi (Ado-Odo/Ota), and Femi Ogunbanwo (Ijebu Ode/Ijebu North East/Odogbolu).

Northern Strongholds: Re-elections in Borno

In contrast to the sweeping changes in the south, Borno State saw a high retention of its representatives. Lawmakers who successfully secured their return tickets include Usman Zannah, Betara Aliyu, Kadiri Rahis, Satomi Ahmed, Bukar Talba, and Ahmed Jaha. New candidates were elected in constituencies where seats were open, while the exercise in Askira-Uba/Hawul was declared inconclusive.

Protests, Disqualification, and Alleged Irregularities

The legislative primaries were not without controversy, as aggrieved aspirants across several states rejected the outcomes, citing widespread irregularities and violence.

Ekiti State

Aspirants Teju Okuyiga (Ekiti South II) and Victor Olumuyiwa Kolade (Ekiti Central II) called for the outright cancellation of the primaries. Okuyiga, the sole female aspirant in her race, alleged that guidelines for accreditation and voting were openly flouted.

"Figures were allocated, and results were announced in several wards where no voting took place," Okuyiga stated, describing the process as a manipulation designed to disenfranchise her supporters.

Kolade echoed similar sentiments, labeling the exercise as "filthy and deeply disappointing."

Ondo State

Tension mounted in Ondo State after the seven-member National Assembly Primary Election Committee, led by Iboroma Harry Dabibi, halted the declaration of results due to internal polarization.

Sources revealed that committee secretary Adamu Mohammed Shamaki and two other members walked out of the process and returned to Abuja, resisting alleged executive pressure from Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s administration to declare nine "consensus candidates" as winners. Some of these preferred candidates had reportedly been disqualified by the party's screening panel.

Seven aspirants were officially disqualified from the Ondo race, including high-profile names such as Adefisoye Tajudeen (Idanre/Ifedore) and Ayodele Arowole (Owo/Ose).

Lagos State

In the Epe Federal Constituency of Lagos State, aspirant Ademola Amure demanded the nullification of the primary, describing it as "shambolic, massively flawed, and fraudulent." Amure's media team alleged that the direct primary devolved into thuggery, voter intimidation, and gun violence in multiple wards, which effectively disenfranchised legitimate voters.

Collations Ongoing in Osun

In Osun State, official results are still being collated, according to the committee chairman, Mr. Bayo Ayo. However, several federal constituencies have settled on consensus candidates.

Among those affirmed are Sanya Omirin (Ijesa-South), Ademola Habeeb (Iwo), and Asalu David (Ede). Incumbents Dr. Obawale Adebisi (Ila) and Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife) both successfully emerged as consensus candidates to retain their tickets.

The APC National Working Committee (NWC) is expected to review the reports and petitions from the various state appeal committees before ratifying the final list of candidates for the 2027 general elections.