Investigative reports indicate that the push for "consensus candidates" ahead of the 2027 general elections is fracturing the internal stability of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Tensions have surfaced in at least ten state chapters, where the move to bypass direct primaries in favor of handpicked candidates has triggered significant pushback from party stakeholders.

Current investigations by the Nigerian Tribune reveal that the crisis is most acute in Bauchi, Nasarawa, Adamawa, Gombe, Oyo, Delta, Rivers, Benue, Bayelsa, and Kano.

Key Battlegrounds and Regional Friction

Oyo State: A Three-Way Deadlock

The entry of the Minister of Power, Bayo Adelabu, into the gubernatorial race has effectively stalled efforts to reach a consensus in Oyo. Party sources indicate a sharp divide between three major camps:

• Senator Sharafadeen Alli: Backed by a specific faction of the state executive.

• Senator Teslim Folarin: The 2023 candidate who maintains a significant loyalist base despite the lack of official party apparatus support in the last cycle.

• Bayo Adelabu: The former Accord Party candidate who has returned to the APC, citing his "Emilokan" (it’s my turn) claim to the ticket.

Supporters of Folarin argue that his 2023 performance (256,685 votes) far outstripped Adelabu’s (38,357 votes), positioning him as the more viable contender. Without a direct intervention from President Bola Tinubu, stakeholders predict that direct primaries will be the only way to prevent a total party collapse in the state.

Nasarawa State: Succession Disputes

Governor Abdullahi Sule’s endorsement of Senator Aliyu Wadada as his successor has met stiff resistance. Notable figures, including former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu, have rejected the consensus arrangement. Adamu has publicly advocated for direct primaries, dismissing attempts by state leaders to introduce "zoning" as a means to narrow the field.

Rivers State: The Fubara-Wike Standoff

Rivers remains a volatile "test case" for the APC. While FCT Minister Nyesom Wike maintains a dual influence over both the APC and PDP structures in the state, his loyalists are reportedly seeking to replace Governor Siminalayi Fubara for the 2027 ticket. However, the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF) has reportedly pressured President Tinubu to protect Fubara, arguing that he should be afforded the same incumbency privileges as other APC governors.

Delta State: New Defections, New Conflicts

The reported defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa to the APC has upended the party’s hierarchy. This shift threatens the seats of incumbents like Senator Ned Nwoko (Delta North), as Okowa reportedly eyes a return to the Senate. Furthermore, the standing of former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege as the state party leader is being challenged by the influx of the new PDP-aligned heavyweights.

Comparative Analysis: 2023 Election Performance (Oyo Guber)

Administrative Challenges in Benue and Kano

• Benue: The long-standing feud between Governor Hyacinth Alia and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, continues to polarize the state chapter, requiring urgent federal mediation.

• Kano: While there is a general consensus on Governor Kabir Yusuf, a rift has emerged between the camps of National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibril over the choice of the deputy governor and the allocation of legislative seats.

The Path Forward

The APC National Chairman, Professor Nenwe Yilwatda, has maintained that a consensus candidate can only be announced if every contestant provides unanimous consent. However, with heavyweights in multiple states already demanding direct primaries, the party leadership faces a daunting task in maintaining unity ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle.