Rhodes-Vivour Claims Tinubu Faces Steep Re-election Hurdle Amid Declining Northern Support

LAGOS, Nigeria — Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, a prominent figure in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former Lagos State governorship candidate, has asserted that President Bola Tinubu faces no realistic path to victory in the 2027 presidential election.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Wednesday, Rhodes-Vivour cited shifting voter demographics and internal political challenges as the primary barriers to the President’s re-election prospects.

Electoral Viability Questioned

Rhodes-Vivour pointed to recent polling data to support his claim that the President's popularity is waning. He specifically highlighted a significant shift in Northern Nigeria—a region that provided approximately 62% of the President’s winning mandate in 2023.

"I have looked at data; we have credible polling going on now. There is no pathway for the President to emerge victorious," Rhodes-Vivour stated. "When you look at the North... you see the tsunami that is happening there."

Allegations of Cronyism and Exclusive Governance

Beyond electoral mathematics, Rhodes-Vivour criticized the President’s administrative style, alleging that the government is overly centralized among a small circle of associates.

• "City Boys" Governance: He characterized the administration as a "city boys’ government," arguing it excludes broader national interests.

• Regional Critiques: He claimed the current structure does not represent a "proper South-West government," but rather one dominated by personal cronies.

Opposition Tensions and Strategic Interference

The ADC chieftain also addressed the ongoing internal crises within opposition parties, including his own. He alleged that the ruling administration is deliberately attempting to destabilize opposition structures to ensure a less competitive field in 2027.

"The best pathway [for the President] is to create an environment where he is the only candidate on the ballot... but he is not going to succeed," he added.

Context of Political Unrest

These remarks come at a time of heightened political tension in Nigeria:

1. INEC Controversy: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recently removed the names of David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola as the ADC’s national chairman and secretary, citing a court order—a move the party has fiercely rejected.

2. Opposition Mobilization: Earlier this week, heavyweights including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi led a high-profile protest at INEC headquarters in Abuja, demanding greater electoral accountability.

As the political landscape shifts toward the 2027 cycle, Rhodes-Vivour’s comments underscore a growing consensus among opposition leaders that the incumbent's path to a second term will be heavily contested.