As the 2027 presidential election draws closer, concerns are mounting over the increasingly combative rhetoric coming from some chieftains of the All Progressives Congress, APC, particularly against opposition politicians and Nigerians who may choose to support parties other than the ruling party.
From Borno State to Kuje in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, and from Osun to Ebonyi and Enugu states, a worrying pattern appears to be emerging.
Governors, commissioners, lawmakers and other APC officials have, in separate incidents, been accused of using language that opponents say amounts to threats, intimidation, exclusion or political punishment.
While the nature of the remarks differs from one incident to another, the underlying message has been interpreted by critics as a warning to Nigerians who may refuse to support the APC or President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
The development is generating concern among opposition parties, civil society organisations, human rights groups and other stakeholders, particularly because the country has a history of electoral violence.
The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has fixed January 16, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections, while the governorship and State House of Assembly elections are scheduled for February 6, 2027.
With campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections already underway, political activity is expected to intensify considerably in the months ahead.
The concern is that if threatening and inflammatory rhetoric continues at this early stage, it could create an increasingly hostile environment as the elections approach.
The emerging trend
One of the incidents that attracted widespread attention occurred in Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, where the state Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development, Sainna Buba, made controversial remarks while speaking at the inauguration of a campaign organised by the City Boy Movement, a political support group backing President Tinubu and his administration.
The commissioner warned political opponents against challenging the APC and used language suggesting that those who opposed the ruling party could face physical punishment, including having their fingers broken.
He also appeared to link government benefits with political loyalty, suggesting that people who supported the government would enjoy its benefits while those who refused to support it could be punished.
The remarks triggered criticism, with Amnesty International Nigeria describing the comments as reckless and unlawful and calling for an urgent investigation.
Buba later said he had been quoted out of context.
The controversy, however, added to growing concerns about the language being used by some political actors ahead of the 2027 elections.
Kuje: Support APC or leave
A similar controversy emerged in Kuje Area Council of the FCT after its chairman, Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo, was captured in a viral video telling residents that they either had to support the APC or leave the area council.
The remarks generated condemnation from the National Human Rights Commission, NHRC, which described the statement as intimidating and contrary to constitutional and democratic principles.
The commission called for Shekwolo's arrest and prosecution and urged the police, the Department of State Services, DSS, and INEC to investigate the matter.
It also called for measures to protect residents from possible harassment, profiling and disenfranchisement ahead of the elections.
Shekwolo subsequently clarified his position, maintaining that he had no authority to deprive any resident of their fundamental rights and arguing that his remarks had been taken out of context.
The episode nevertheless raised questions about the extent to which political affiliation should feature in statements by elected public officials, particularly when such statements concern residents' rights and access to public institutions.
Ebonyi and the opposition
In Ebonyi State, Governor Francis Nwifuru has also faced criticism over statements concerning opposition parties.
In June, the Ebonyi Political Think-Tank, a civil society coalition, accused the governor of making threatening remarks against the opposition's governorship candidate at a political rally.
The group subsequently alerted the police, DSS and the Nigerian Army, warning that the governor should be held responsible for any harm that might result from the alleged threats.
The governor later reiterated his position while addressing newly sworn-in local government chairmen, maintaining that no political seat would be surrendered to the opposition and that opposition activities would not be tolerated in the state.
Supporters of the governor may regard such statements as political mobilisation and an expression of confidence in the APC's electoral strength. Critics, however, argue that language suggesting that opposition activities will not be tolerated can contribute to an atmosphere of political exclusion.
The distinction is important because political parties are expected to compete for votes, while citizens retain the constitutional right to support whichever political party or candidate they choose.
Osun controversy
Osun State has also emerged as another area of concern.
Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who represents Osun East, became embroiled in controversy following remarks attributed to him during the build-up to the state's governorship election.
The remarks were interpreted by opponents as a threat against members of the Accord Party.
The police subsequently questioned the senator over the statement, while the controversy generated renewed debate about the use of inflammatory language during election campaigns.
Fadahunsi later maintained that his remarks had been taken out of context.
The incident nevertheless highlighted the potential consequences of political language in an environment where tensions between rival parties can quickly escalate.
The bigger concern
Some political observers may argue that opposition parties and their supporters are also guilty of using aggressive or threatening language.
That argument, however, does not remove the responsibility of the ruling party and its officials to set standards for political conduct.
As the party controlling the federal government and several state governments, the APC has a significant responsibility to ensure that its officials and supporters respect the law and democratic rights.
The same standard should apply to opposition parties.
Political competition is an essential part of democracy, but disagreement over political choices should not expose citizens to threats of violence, eviction, exclusion or punishment.
The law does not permit citizens to be punished simply because they support a different political party.
Lessons from the 2023 elections
The concerns surrounding the latest developments are partly rooted in Nigeria's experience during previous election cycles.
The 2023 general elections were accompanied by several incidents of violence across the country, resulting in deaths among voters, party supporters, security personnel and electoral officials.
Among those killed was Oyibo Chukwu, the Labour Party's senatorial candidate for Enugu East, who was attacked and killed days before the presidential election.
The period leading to the 2023 polls also witnessed attacks on political candidates, party supporters and electoral officials.
Researchers at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project documented numerous violent incidents targeting political actors and electoral stakeholders in the months surrounding the election.
Atrocities Watch Africa and Global Rights also documented killings, abductions and attacks involving candidates and politically exposed persons during the period.
Alhassan Ado Doguwa, then the APC's House of Representatives Majority Leader for Kano, was also accused of making threatening remarks before the 2023 election and was subsequently charged over violence that resulted in the deaths of three people. He was not convicted.
The pattern has not been limited to general elections.
Off-cycle governorship elections have also recorded incidents involving violence, intimidation, vote buying and attacks on political supporters.
The 2019 Kogi governorship election, for instance, was marred by reports of violence, ballot-box snatching and the killing of a PDP women's leader whose residence was reportedly burnt.
The governorship elections in Edo and Ondo in 2020 were comparatively peaceful, with peace agreements between political rivals contributing to efforts to reduce tensions.
By 2023, however, concerns about violence had resurfaced during the governorship elections in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa.
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room estimated that 626 people were killed in violence linked to the 2019 election cycle, compared with 106 recorded during the 2015 elections.
The figures underline why inflammatory political rhetoric continues to attract serious attention from election observers and civil society organisations.
Enugu joins the areas of concern
Enugu State has also witnessed reported attacks on opposition meetings and rallies ahead of the 2027 elections.
Some of the incidents reportedly resulted in casualties, raising concerns about the safety of opposition supporters and political gatherings in the state.
The development adds another state to the list of areas being closely watched as political activities intensify.
Although political disagreements do not automatically lead to violence, the experience of previous elections suggests that threats, attacks and inflammatory statements can contribute to an atmosphere in which violence becomes more likely.
Areas to watch
With the presidential and National Assembly campaigns underway and other elections approaching, political observers are paying particular attention to states where recent incidents have generated tension.
Ebonyi is one of them, following the controversy surrounding statements attributed to the governor and the opposition's concerns about political space in the state.
Osun is another area of interest, particularly because political tensions between the APC and opposition parties have remained high following the governorship election.
Borno and the wider North-East also require attention, especially given the region's history of insecurity and the potential effect of political intimidation on voter participation.
The FCT, particularly Kuje Area Council, has also attracted attention following the controversy involving the council chairman.
Enugu has joined the list following reports of attacks on opposition gatherings.
The concern is not that violence is inevitable in any of these places, but that the early warning signs should not be ignored.
The Peace Accord
On August 18, Nigeria's major political parties signed a National Peace Accord ahead of the 2027 elections.
The agreement was intended to promote peaceful and issue-based campaigns and discourage political actors from resorting to violence, intimidation and inflammatory rhetoric.
However, some of the controversial incidents emerged after the accord was signed.
That has raised questions about whether political parties and their members are prepared to translate their commitments on paper into actual conduct on the ground.
The police have opened at least one formal inquiry into the remarks attributed to the Borno commissioner, while the Osun police command also questioned Senator Fadahunsi.
However, public outcomes from the various investigations have remained limited, leaving some Nigerians concerned about whether those responsible for inflammatory statements will ultimately face consequences.
What the law says
Nigeria's Electoral Act 2026 contains provisions dealing specifically with threats, violence and inflammatory language during political campaigns.
According to lawyer Marcellus Onah, the law prohibits political parties, candidates, aspirants, individuals or groups from directly or indirectly threatening anyone with force or violence during a political campaign for the purpose of compelling that person to support or reject a political party or candidate.
He explained that a person found guilty of such an offence could face a fine of up to N5 million or imprisonment for up to 12 months.
Political parties found guilty could also face financial penalties, with higher penalties applying to subsequent offences.
The law also addresses abusive, intemperate, slanderous and inflammatory campaign language, particularly where such language is designed or likely to provoke violent reactions.
The legal framework therefore makes a distinction between vigorous political campaigning and conduct that amounts to threats, intimidation or incitement.
Beyond electoral law, the 1999 Constitution, as amended, guarantees citizens the right to freely associate and to form or belong to political parties and other associations.
This means that citizens cannot lawfully be denied their basic rights simply because they support a political party other than the one controlling a particular government.
What lies ahead
The 2027 election campaign is still in its early stages, but the political temperature is already rising.
As the presidential and National Assembly campaigns gather momentum and governorship and State Assembly contests move closer, political rhetoric is expected to become more intense.
The major concern is whether political competition will remain within the boundaries of democratic debate or whether threats, intimidation and violence will increasingly become part of the campaign environment.
The responsibility rests not only with political parties but also with security agencies and electoral institutions.
Political leaders have a duty to restrain their supporters and ensure that disagreements are settled through lawful democratic processes.
Security agencies, meanwhile, are expected to investigate credible allegations of threats and violence and enforce the law without regard to the political status of those involved.
For Nigerians, the fundamental issue remains simple: every citizen should be able to support a candidate or political party of their choice without fear of intimidation, punishment or violence.
The credibility of the 2027 elections will ultimately depend not only on what happens on election day but also on whether Nigerians are allowed to campaign, organise, express their political preferences and vote freely in the months leading up to the polls.
The coming months will therefore be crucial in determining whether the increasingly heated rhetoric remains political language or becomes a precursor to violence.
For a democracy to function, political power must ultimately be decided by voters at the ballot box, not by threats against those who choose differently.